annabl1970
Much-Anticipated Jobs Report Is Out (Who will be smiling (big) today)
October 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Unemployment Rate Drops To 7.8 Percent, Nearly 4-Year Low


unemployment stats jobs report

By Lucia Mutikani


WASHINGTON, Oct 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to a near four-year low of 7.8 percent in September, a potential boost to President Barack Obama's re-election bid.

The Labor Department said on Friday the unemployment rate, a key focus in the race for the White House, dropped by 0.3 percentage point to its lowest point since January 2009.

A survey of households from which the jobless rate is derived showed 873,000 job gains last month, the most since June 1983. The drop in unemployment came even as Americans come back into the labor force to resume the hunt for work. The workforce had shrank in the prior two months.

The household survey is volatile. A survey of business establishments showed employers added 114,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, a touch above economists' expectations for 113,000 jobs. Employment for July and August was revised to show 86,000 more jobs created than previous reported.

It was the second last report before the Nov. 6 election that pits Obama against Republican Mitt Romney.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thursday after Wednesday's first presidential debate showed Romney gained ground and is now viewed positively by 51 percent of voters. Obama's favorability rating remained unchanged at 56 percent.

Economists blame the so-called fiscal cliff for the slowdown in business hiring, which has left millions of Americans working either part-time or unemployed and too discouraged to look for jobs.

The Congressional Budget Office has warned that a failure by Congress to avoid the automatic tax hikes and government spending cuts that will suck about $600 billion out of the economy next year would knock the economy back into recession.

"Businesses are not hiring people, they want to wait and see how the election evolves and how the political landscape shapes up," said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University Channel Islands in Camarillo, California.


Replies

  • terpmama
    October 5, 2012 at 3:56 PM
    I know my best friend (who owns a small single business) is dying for a few more employees...
  • stacymomof2
    October 5, 2012 at 4:02 PM

    It's from the BLS.  I already linked the report in this thread.

    Quoting VisionSeeker:

     I wouldn't jump for joy just yet.  Jobs are kinda like gas prices.  They fluctuate for a multitude of reasons.  Right now jobs are available d/t seasonal stuff.  BUT, we're also a month away from a very important election.  So anything that can be made in a negative or positive light by either candidate will be publicized. 

    Here's something else to think about:  where was this survey, study whatever done.  Was it across the board the US or did it target a few select regions or cities?  The press is always good about leaving out the tiny details.  Just saying.


  • stacymomof2
    October 5, 2012 at 4:20 PM

    I just have to say here that the BLS report comes out monthly.  The news stations report on it and you will hear things highlighted or minimized according to the POV of the reporter.  The "Official" unemployment figure hasn't included people who have stopped looking since the Reagan Admin, however the BLS publishes it nontheless, otherwise where fo you think you got that number?  It is released with the monthly report.

    I think it is hilarious to claim ridiculous things about seasonal hiring and lies.  You can see ALL the information from the report (which is how you know about seasonal differences, by the way) on the BLS website.  They release a comprehensive report every single month, which I already linked in this post.

    To claim that "Obama changed the figures" is absolutely ridiculous.  look it up.  You can also see all the past reports.

    Here is the September report.  The admin has no control over it.

     THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2012
    The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm 
    payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 
    today. Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing 
    but changed little in most other major industries.
    Household Survey Data
    The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 7.8 percent in September. 
    For the first 8 months of the year, the rate held within a narrow range of 8.1 
    and 8.3 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.1 million, decreased by 
    456,000 in September. (See table A-1.)
    Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.3 percent), 
    adult women (7.0 percent), and whites (7.0 percent) declined over the month. 
    The unemployment rates for teenagers (23.7 percent), blacks (13.4 percent), and 
    Hispanics (9.9 percent) were little changed. The jobless rate for Asians, at 
    4.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted), fell over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, 
    and A-3.)
    In September, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs 
    decreased by 468,000 to 6.5 million. (See table A-11.)
    The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks declined by 302,000 over 
    the month to 2.5 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 
    27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.8 million and accounted for 40.1 
    percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)
    Total employment rose by 873,000 in September, following 3 months of little 
    change. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.4 percentage point to 
    58.7 percent, after edging down in the prior 2 months. The overall trend in 
    the employment-population ratio for this year has been flat. The civilian labor 
    force rose by 418,000 to 155.1 million in September, while the labor force 
    participation rate was little changed at 63.6 percent. (See table A-1.)
    The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes 
    referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August 
    to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because 
    their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time 
    job. (See table A-8.)
    In September, 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, 
    essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally 
    adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were 
    available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. 
    They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work 
    in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
    Among the marginally attached, there were 802,000 discouraged workers in 
    September, a decline of 235,000 from a year earlier. (These data are not 
    seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking 
    for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 
    1.7 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in September had 
    not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such 
    as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
    Establishment Survey Data
    Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 114,000 in September. In 2012, 
    employment growth has averaged 146,000 per month, compared with an average 
    monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011. In September, employment rose in health care 
    and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)
    Health care added 44,000 jobs in September. Job gains continued in ambulatory 
    health care services (+30,000) and hospitals (+8,000). Over the past year, 
    employment in health care has risen by 295,000.
    In September, employment increased by 17,000 in transportation and warehousing. 
    Within the industry, there were job gains in transit and ground passenger 
    transportation (+9,000) and in warehousing and storage (+4,000).
    Employment in financial activities edged up in September (+13,000), reflecting 
    modest job growth in credit intermediation (+6,000) and real estate (+7,000).
    Manufacturing employment edged down in September (-16,000). On net, manufacturing 
    employment has been unchanged since April. In September, job losses occurred 
    in computer and electronic products (-6,000) and in printing and related 
    activities (-3,000).
    Employment in other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, 
    wholesale trade, retail trade, information, professional and business services, 
    leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little change over the month.
    The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 
    0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in September. The manufacturing workweek edged up by 
    0.1 hour to 40.6 hours, and factory overtime was unchanged at 3.2 hours. 
    The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private 
    nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
    In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm 
    payrolls rose by 7 cents to $23.58. Over the past 12 months, average hourly 
    earnings have risen by 1.8 percent. In September, average hourly earnings of 
    private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 5 cents 
    to $19.81. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
    The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from 
    +141,000 to +181,000, and the change for August was revised from +96,000 to 
    +142,000.
    ____________
    The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on
    Friday, November 2, 2012, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).
    
    Quoting asfriend:

    Furthermore, the admin simply stopped counting the more than a million who have quit looking.
    Add that to the equation and the unemployment number is 11.1 %


    Quoting etsmom:

    Where I live, we are in a hiring freeze. The hospitals are low censused, or not hiring all together.  My husband's employer is selling his business and we haven't seen any new job growth in 4  years.  It is disturbing that the only jobs available are the fast food jobs and even those are very competitive. I am seeing grandmothers and grandfathers applying for the same jobs that  college grads and high school teens are.  Our unemployment office has a line outside of the building.  It doesn't look like the unemployment is abating her soon.  Perhaps the numbers we only polled in another area?



  • Saerise
    by Saerise
    October 5, 2012 at 4:21 PM

    it's part of the Household data set from the Current Population Survey, which is a much thinner survey with much higher margin of error, which convneniently makes it much easier to fudge.  

    And of course next month after everyone has already voted, these will be revised in line with expectations and nothing will be done about it.

  • erika9009
    October 5, 2012 at 4:21 PM

    OH right before the election, oh that's not fishy.


    Number tweaking.  They just cut more people out of the workforce and boink, number goes down.  Simple math. 

    But most seemed to be fooled by simple math now a days.

    Quoting annabl1970:

    The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to a near four-year low of 7.8 percent in September, a potential boost to President Barack Obama's re-election bid.
     


  • tooptimistic
    October 5, 2012 at 4:22 PM

    September unemployment report falls to 7.8%

    2:19PM EST October 5. 2012 - The unemployment rate in September fell from 8.1% to 7.8%, the lowest since January 2009, as Americans benefited from a surge in part-time work, the Labor Department said Friday.

    Employers added 114,000 jobs, about what economists expected, with health care and transportation and warehousing leading job gains.

    Businesses added 104,000 jobs while federal, state and local governments added 10,000.

    JOBS REPORT: More stories, analysis, video on employment

    The jobless rate fell sharply because it's calculated from a different survey than the official employment number. That household survey showed a robust 873,000 increase in employment and a 456,000 decline in unemployment.

    However, many of those job gains were in part-time and self-employed positions.

    The report is the government's next-to-last reading on employment before the presidential election and could influence undecided voters. The government will release October figures on Nov. 2, four days before the election.

    One positive sign: The Labor Department revised up estimated job gains for July and August by a total 86,000. July's total rose from 141,000 to 181,000, while August increased from 96,000 to 142,000.

    "It's continued improvement at a modest pace," Wells Fargo Chief Economist John Silvia said of the report.

    Economists had estimated that employers added 115,000 jobs in September, including 129,000 in the private sector and 14,000 government job losses

    There were some other bright spots behind the headline numbers. The average workweek rose to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours. Employers typically boost the hours of existing employees before bringing on new staffers. And average hourly earnings jumped 7 cents to $23.58.

    Also, the number of Americans out of work at least six months fell by 189,000 to 4.8 million. Yet these long-term unemployed still represent 40% of all of the jobless.

    However, another barometer of future permanent hiring -- the addition of temporary workers -- was less encouraging. Employers cut 2,000 temporary workers.

    And about two-thirds of the 873,000 increase in household-survey employment was in part-time jobs.

    "We have to look at it as a qualified positive," says Patrick O'Keefe, former deputy assistant secretary at Labor and currently director of economic research at J.H. Cohn, an accounting consulting firm. "It can often lead to getting a more permanent" job.

    Leading job gains was education and health services, with 49,000 net additions.

    Governments, meanwhile, added 10,000 jobs, and employment for July and August was revised to show an increase of 63,000, up from a previous loss of 28,000 -- an encouraging sign for a beleaguered sector. Those are the largest gains since the U.S. Census inflated government payrolls in May 2010. State and local governments generally have been cutting jobs steadily since 2009.

    Transportation and warehousing added 17,000; professional and business services added 13,000; leisure and hospitality, 11,000; and retailers, 9,400. Construction firms added 5,000 jobs.

    Manufacturers, however, cut 16,000 positions.

     

     

     

    It seems to just be a surge in part time work..

     

  • Ms.KitKat
    October 5, 2012 at 4:30 PM

     the ones who should be smiling are the ones with the JOBS! I am sure they are very happy to be be back at work again!

  • stacymomof2
    October 5, 2012 at 4:55 PM

    That is just not true, they are quoting the brueau of Labor Statistics.  I posted the whole report including the stats and breakdowns.  You can't just claim that the number is false, the "official" unemployment rate is calculated differently since Reagan changed it to dismiss those who are no longer on unemployment insurance, (and included the 100% employed military population in the calculation.)  However the official rate hasn't been calculated any differently for at least 25 years or so, so to claim the gain is false because YOU just realized that they don't include those who quit looking is absolutely false. Those numbers haven't been included ever since the recession started in 2007, at least.  So if you only just now heard about it that's on you, not Obama and the BLS.  It is an apples to apples comparison with the past unemployment rate.

    If you pay attention, this report comes out every month and every month mentions the people who are leaving the labor force and why.  

    Quoting erika9009:

    OH right before the election, oh that's not fishy.


    Number tweaking.  They just cut more people out of the workforce and boink, number goes down.  Simple math. 

    But most seemed to be fooled by simple math now a days.

    Quoting annabl1970:

    The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to a near four-year low of 7.8 percent in September, a potential boost to President Barack Obama's re-election bid.
     



  • asfriend
    October 5, 2012 at 4:56 PM
    Except people aren't falling for it. there will be a new President Elect.


    Quoting Saerise:

    it's part of the Household data set from the Current Population Survey, which is a much thinner survey with much higher margin of error, which convneniently makes it much easier to fudge.  

    And of course next month after everyone has already voted, these will be revised in line with expectations and nothing will be done about it.


  • _Kissy_
    by _Kissy_
    October 5, 2012 at 5:20 PM